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Michael Voel, ESPN senior writer
The 2024 WNBA playoffs begin on Sept. 22. If the regular season ended today, what would each of the eight teams in playoff position have to do to win the league title?
First Place New York LibertyWho have won seven in a row and are the only team to have made the playoffs so far, they just have to continue being what they have been: the best team in the league this season.
“I think what I want to see from our team is that we continue to get better,” the New York coach said. Breanna Stewart said after Liberty’s 94-74 win Dallas Wings on Tuesday. “Everybody keeps saying, ‘Oh, you guys won the playoffs. Why are you still playing hard?’ We want to keep that No. 1 spot, we want home court advantage. And you saw today, for two quarters we held Dallas to under 20.
“I feel like we’re not done yet. Our record is certainly very good, but we still need to do a lot better, and we don’t want to peak too early.”
Las Vegas Aces They are fourth in the standings, but as two-time defending champions, they are considered next on the list of favorites to win the 2024 title.
Since the WNBA launched in 1997, the league hasn’t been known for many big upsets in the playoffs or unexpected teams winning titles. But it has happened. Most recently in 2021, No. 6 seed chicago skywhich had a .500 regular season record that year, won the championship as the number 5 seed Phoenix Mercury,
But since the league moved to a playoff format in 2016 that sees the top eight teams overall seeded — rather than splitting the field between the Eastern and Western Conferences with the top four teams from each — every title except 2021 has been won by either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Still, reaching the playoffs means the team has a chance to win it all. Here we take a look at the performance of the current top eight teams as title contenders, which we rank according to their chances of winning the championship.
1. New York Liberty (24-4)
Current Status: 1
Previous titles: nobody
New York has played for the title five times, including a 3-1 WNBA Finals loss to Las Vegas last season. The Liberty reached the Commissioner’s Cup finals in June, losing to Minnesota after winning the title last year. Overall, New York’s performance in 2024 has been very impressive, with high-level performances from guards Sabrina Ionescu and further Stewart and Jonquel JonesLiberty and coach Sandy Brondello also have a good idea of what they need and what they can consistently get from their bench. That was on display again Tuesday, when Ionescu was out with a sore neck and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton He hasn’t yet returned from knee surgery. But the experience of playing another season together has also boosted Liberty’s confidence.
The Liberty have faced disappointments as a franchise, but it’s important to focus on the present and the opportunity they have. This group is very capable of doing that. New York fans have waited a long time, but this could be the payoff.
2. Las Vegas Aces (17-9)
Current Status: 4
Previous titles: 2022, 2023
The way things stand now, the Aces and Liberty — who finished 1st and 2nd in the standings last season — could face off in the semifinals, which would be a blockbuster. Las Vegas lost just six regular-season games last season, so this year’s team has to struggle more. Point guard Chelsea GrayHis absence from the lineup until July 2 due to injury had a big impact on the fact that Las Vegas did not perform as well as expected earlier this season.
But when Gray comes back, Aja Wilson In the midst of an almost certain MVP season and Jackie Young And Kelsey Plum Housed among the league’s top players, the Aces are still a formidable force. Tiffany Hayes Coming out of retirement to join the Aces will also help, as will Las Vegas’ championship experience under coach Becky Hammon. And perhaps the fact that the Aces aren’t considered the clear favorites this year will also be helpful.
Current Status: 3
Previous titles: 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017
The Lynx lead the WNBA in defensive rating and won the Commissioner’s Cup Finals over New York in June. Nafeesa Collier One of the league’s top players, averaging a double-double. Fellow Forward Alanna Smith building on his successful season in Chicago last year, and guard courtney williamsThose who were previously with the Sky have also been good in Minnesota. Guard Kayla McBride This is his best season in his 11th year in the league.
The Lynx just traded for a forward Myisha Hines-Allenwho won the title with Washington in 2019. She is a reliable post presence who should mesh well with the Lynx. Minnesota has won all four of its titles under current coach Cheryl Reeve, so she knows the steps to get there.
Current Status: 2
Previous titles: nobody
The main triad of the Sun Alyssa Thomas, Devana Bonner And Brionna Jones This is reinforced by the guards’ career-best seasons Dijonai Carrington And Tyasha Harris. The Suns, who started the season 9-0, traded for guard Marina Mabrey on July 17 to add more scoring spark, and she’s playing well for Connecticut so far.
The Sun remain one of the league’s strongest defensive teams. Can they keep that up and add a little more offense? And can this team do anything better than past Sun teams that came close to winning a championship but never quite got going? The Sun never got that extra “break” that could have tipped the scales in their favor in past WNBA Finals. But led by savvy veterans Thomas and Bonner, they’re ready to compete with anyone.
5. Phoenix Mercury (15-13)
Current Status: 6
Previous titles: 2007, 2009, 2014
The Mercury haven’t done much so far this season to realistically deserve the benefit of the doubt, and we list them ahead of Indiana even though the Fever beat Phoenix 3-0. What if? This could be Diana Taurasi’s last season, which could be a motivating factor for her and the team.
Plus, there’s previous WNBA Championship experience with players like Taurasi, center Brittney GrinerGuard/Forward Kahaleh Copper (with Chicago) and The Guard Natasha Cloud (With Washington) The team recently added forward Monique Billings On a seven-day contract; she would fill a need inside if she remains on the roster. In the end, it feels like Mercury hasn’t played her best, so maybe this is still coming.
Current Status: 5
Previous titles: 2004, 2010, 2018, 2020
Storm added veterans such as forward Nneka Ogwumike and guard Skylar Diggins-Smith in the offseason. They also recently added forward Gabby Williams. She has played for the Storm for the past two seasons and is now back in the WNBA after training with the French national team that won Olympic silver. Center Ezi MagbegorThe bronze medallist with Australia at the Olympics has become a great rim protector. And yes, the Storm have a star guard Jewell LoydPart of the United States gold medal team.
Can Seattle put the pieces together well enough to win a title in the post-Sue Bird era? The Storm rank middling in offensive rating, so they’ll need to improve that. Williams can make a very good defense even better.
Current Status: 7
Previous titles: 2012
By now everyone is aware of one of the most repeated facts this season: The Fever haven’t made the playoffs since 2016. That’s their stated goal for 2024. That seemed ambitious in the first month. But look at what’s happened since then: Since June 13, the Fever are 10-5. That streak includes three wins over Phoenix, as well as victories over New York, Minnesota and Seattle. Indiana has a better record than the Mercury (9-7) and Storm (9-6) in that span.
But we put the Fever at seventh on this list right now because going from a seven-season playoff drought to a title is a huge leap, led by stars who are only in their first season.Caitlin Clarke) and the other (Aliyah Boston) WNBA season. But the real playoff fever is starting for the Fever, and this is just the first step.
8. Chicago Sky (11-16)
Current Status: 8
Previous titles: 2021
Sky will likely have their eyes on the team below them in their first week back from the Olympics – Atlanta Dream — is better than considering the idea of winning a title. The Dream could make a run in the playoffs, try to beat Chicago or Indiana. The idea of the Sky doing anything like 2021 is far-fetched, as that was a much more experienced team.
Still, new post players angel reese And Camila Cardoso Both have NCAA titles, and the Sky look best when they’re both playing well at the same time. Reese is already one of the WNBA’s top rebounders. Guard Chennedy Carter She has led the Sky in scoring since returning to the WNBA. But Chicago is in the bottom three in the league in scoring as a team, making it hard to imagine the Sky can win three consecutive playoff series to win a championship.
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